About this Market Intelligence Report:
This report is ScrapeHero’s proprietary location-data analysis of five major US food chains — tracked over 3 months and cross-checked against public industry data.
A headline like “Chain X closed 15 locations” sounds like decline, but a chain with 10,000 US stores closing 15 is not the same story as a chain with just over 100 stores closing one.
ScrapeHero tracked store-level closures for five major US food chains: Dunkin Donuts, Panera Bread, Taco Bell, Chipotle, and Chopt, over 3 months, mapping each closure by city and state and calculating closure rates against each chain’s total US footprint, not just raw counts.
Key Takeaways
- 28 total closures across 5 major US food chains (Dunkin Donuts, Panera Bread, Taco Bell, Chipotle, Chopt) over 3 months of analysis, spanning 16 states and 27 cities.
- Dunkin Donuts closed the most locations (15), but adjusted for footprint size, it’s actually one of the least affected chains, with a closure rate of just 0.15%.
- Chopt had the highest closure rate (~0.95%) despite closing only 1 location; its small US footprint (105 locations) means a single closure carries outsized weight.
- Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Ohio tied for the most closures (3 each).
- These closures occurred against a backdrop of a 7-year low in national restaurant closures and continued net unit growth across the fast-casual and QSR segments — all five chains tracked here also grew their US footprint in 2025.
- No verified evidence ties these specific closures to inflation or food pricing; each chain’s closures trace to separate, chain-specific factors, most notably Panera Bread’s company-wide “RISE” turnaround plan.
Restaurant Industry Trends
US restaurant closures hit a 7-year low in spring 2025, and chain restaurants grew 1.4% in unit count even as independent restaurants shrank — the fast-casual and QSR segments (where all five chains in this report compete) led that growth.
Overall Closures:
- US restaurant closings fell below 1,000 in April 2025, the latest month with available data — an 82% decrease from January 2018 closure levels, marking at least a 7-year low. (Source: Datassential)
Chain vs. Independent Restaurants:
- Chain restaurant locations grew 1.4% in 2025, surpassing 263,000 units nationwide.
- Independent restaurants declined 2.3% over the same period — a net loss of over 9,500 locations.
- Full-service independents were hit hardest (-2.6%), compared to a smaller decline for limited-service independents (-1.8%).
(Source: NRN / Technomic)
Growth by segment:
- Fast Casual chains posted the strongest net unit growth since 2022, at +15.5%.
- Quick Service (QSR) chains grew +5.8% over the same period.
- Casual Dining, by contrast, ran a 3.3% unit deficit — closures outpaced openings in that segment.
Source: Restaurant Dive / Black Box Intelligence
All five chains in this report (Dunkin, Panera, Taco Bell, Chipotle, Chopt) sit in the Fast Casual or QSR segments — the two best-performing categories industry-wide.
A Note on Scale:
- Even with the closures above, total US restaurant locations hit an all-time high of over 860,000 as of November 2025.
- However, growth has been slowing month over month throughout 2025, and closures were concentrated among smaller chains (50 or fewer units) and weaker operators, not the large, established brands covered in this report.
(Source: Datassential)
Which Restaurant Chains Closed the Most Locations?
Overview
- Over 3 months, the five chains tracked closed a combined 28 locations.
- These closures spanned 16 states and 27 cities — showing the closures weren’t concentrated in one region, but spread nationwide.
Source: ScrapeHero proprietary location data
Closures by Chain in 2025:
| Chain | Closed Locations |
|---|---|
| Dunkin Donuts | 15 |
| Panera Bread | 7 |
| Taco Bell | 3 |
| Chipotle | 2 |
| Chopt | 1 |
Source: ScrapeHero proprietary location data
- Dunkin Donuts alone accounted for over half (53%) of all closures across the five chains tracked.
- Panera Bread had less than half of Dunkin’s closure count, but still more than double Taco Bell’s.
Closure by State
- Closures reached 16 different states.
- Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Ohio were tied for the most closures, with 3 locations each.
Which chains closed in the most states?
- Dunkin Donuts closed locations across 7 states — the widest geographic spread of the five chains.
- Panera Bread followed with closures across 6 states.
- Taco Bell (3), Chipotle (2), and Chopt (1) each had closures concentrated in fewer states.
Why this matters: Dunkin Donuts leads on every raw metric here — most closures, most states affected. But raw counts don’t account for the fact that Dunkin also operates far more US locations than any other chain in this report. The next section adjusts for that.
Closure Rate: The Real Story
Adjusted for each chain’s total US footprint, Chopt had the highest closure rate (~0.95%) despite closing just one location — while Dunkin Donuts, the chain with the most raw closures, actually had one of the lowest rates.
A chain’s closure count only means something in proportion to how many stores it operates. Dunkin Donuts closing 15 stores out of 10,135 total US locations is a very different signal than Chopt closing 1 store out of just 105 total US locations.
Closure Rate by Chain:
| Chain | Closures | Total US Locations | Closure Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chopt | 1 | 105 | 0.95% |
| Panera Bread | 7 | 2,228 | 0.31% |
| Dunkin Donuts | 15 | 10,135 | 0.15% |
| Chipotle | 2 | 4,064 | 0.05% |
| Taco Bell | 3 | 8,248 | 0.04% |
Source: Closure counts and Total US Location Counts- ScrapeHero proprietary location data.
Key reversals from the raw-count picture:
- Chopt’s closure rate is roughly 6x higher than Dunkin Donuts’, even though Dunkin closed 15x more stores in absolute terms.
- Panera Bread’s rate (0.31%) is more than double Dunkin’s (0.15%) — despite Dunkin closing 7 more locations overall.
- Taco Bell and Chipotle have the lowest closure rates of the five (~0.04–0.05%), making them proportionally the most stable chains in this dataset.
- Dunkin Donuts, despite leading every raw metric in the previous section, ranks second-lowest by closure rate — its high closure count is largely a function of having the largest US footprint by far.
Chopt’s 0.95% closure rate is built on a single closure. With a footprint this small, one store closing or staying open swings the rate significantly — so while the rate is accurate, it shouldn’t be read as a strong statistical signal the way a rate built on more closures would be.
Openings vs Closures: Are These Chains Actually Shrinking?
All five chains tracked in this report grew their US footprint in 2025 — none experienced a net loss of locations during this period, meaning the closures covered here reflect footprint reshuffling, not overall decline. This kind of location intelligence, tracking openings alongside closures, gives a fuller picture than closure counts alone.
Dunkin Donuts
- Opened over 230 new stores in 2025, per its franchise disclosure document.
- Reached its 10,000th US store milestone in October 2025.
- Against 15 closures in the analysis window, this is a strongly net-positive year for store count.
Source: Restaurant Dive (reporting on Dunkin’s 2025 FDD and 10,000-store milestone)
Panera Bread
- Panera opened 23 new bakery-cafes in 2026 (15 company-owned, 8 franchised), with at least 25 more planned, according to figures reported by Fast Company on the company’s growth milestones heading into 2026.
- Separately, Panera launched the “Panera RISE” transformation strategy in November 2025, focused on modernizing its store portfolio, refining its menu, and emphasizing food quality.
- Some of Panera’s 2025 closures were tied to an isolated franchisee situation rather than a broader corporate pullback.
Source: Fast Company via Food Business News (2026 expansion figures); Panera/trade press (RISE strategy announcement)
Taco Bell:
- No evidence found of net store loss in 2025.
- The closures identified in this report’s window (e.g., Scottsdale, AZ and Lafayette, CA) were rebuild/redevelopment closures — old locations replaced with modernized versions of the same restaurant — not permanent losses.
Chipotle:
- Opened 304 company-owned restaurants in 2024 and targeted 315–345 new restaurants for 2025.
- Reported annual revenue of $11.3 billion in the same period.
- The 2 closures in this report are a negligible fraction against this expansion pace.
Source: Chipotle’s reported 2024 financial results and 2025 development guidance
Chopt:
- Confirmed entry into a new state market in 2025 — Chopt opened its first Ohio locations in August 2025, bringing the chain to over 10 states nationwide.
- The single closure in this report’s dataset occurred during a period when Chopt was actively opening new locations, not contracting.
Source: Cleveland Jewish News
Based on the five chains tracked in this report, there’s no single shared cause — each chain’s closures trace to different, chain-specific factors (see Openings vs. Closures for details by chain). Only Panera Bread has a clearly documented strategic cause (its “Panera RISE” transformation plan); the others reflect routine franchisee decisions, site rebuilds, or isolated situations. No verified evidence connects these closures to food pricing, inflation, or reduced consumer demand.
Closures by Category
Snack & Nonalcoholic Beverage chains accounted for the most closures (15) among the five tracked, followed by Limited-Service (11) and Full-Service (2).
Closures by Category:
| Category | Closed Locations |
|---|---|
| Snack & Nonalcoholic Beverage Chains | 15 |
| Limited-Service Restaurants | 11 |
| Full-Service Restaurants | 2 |
Source: ScrapeHero proprietary location data
- Snack & Nonalcoholic Beverage Chains saw the most closures, at 15 locations.
- Limited-Service Restaurants followed with 11 closures.
- Full-Service Restaurants had the fewest, at just 2 closures.
What the Data Actually Shows
Across five major US food chains, raw closure counts told one story and adjusted, cross-checked data told a very different one.
- Raw counts favored Dunkin Donuts as the “most affected” chain (15 closures) — but adjusted for footprint size, Dunkin ranked second-lowest in closure rate, while Chopt, with just 1 closure, had the highest rate of the five.
- None of the five chains were net-shrinking in 2025. Dunkin, Panera, Chipotle, and Chopt were all actively opening new locations during the same period their closures occurred; Taco Bell’s closures were rebuilds, not losses.
- Only Panera Bread has a clearly documented strategic cause behind its closures (its “Panera RISE” transformation plan). For the other four chains, closures traced to routine franchisee decisions, site rebuilds, or isolated situations — not signs of broader distress.
- These closures occurred against a backdrop of a 7-year low in national restaurant closures, with the fast-casual and QSR segments — where all five chains compete — posting the strongest net unit growth in the industry.
- No verified evidence connects these closures to food pricing, inflation, or reduced consumer demand — despite food-away-from-home prices rising 3.5% in 2025.
The bigger picture:
Headline closure counts, on their own, are a weak signal of a restaurant chain’s actual health. As this report shows, the chain with the most closures wasn’t the most affected once footprint size and openings data were factored in — and none of the five chains tracked here show real signs of decline. Reading closures in isolation, without this kind of context, risks telling a misleading story.
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Frequently Asked Questions About the Restaurant Industry Trends in the US
There’s no single cause across the chains tracked in this report — closures trace to different, chain-specific factors. Panera Bread’s closures are tied in part to a documented company-wide transformation strategy (“Panera RISE”), while Dunkin Donuts, Taco Bell, Chipotle, and Chopt show no evidence of financial distress; their closures reflect routine franchisee decisions, site rebuilds, or isolated situations. Nationally, restaurant closures overall were actually at a 7-year low in spring 2025.
Based on ScrapeHero location data tracked over 3 months, five major chains recorded closures: Dunkin Donuts (15 locations), Panera Bread (7), Taco Bell (3), Chipotle (2), and Chopt (1) — a combined 28 closures across 16 states and 27 cities.
Food-away-from-home prices (which includes fast food and restaurant dining) rose 3.5% in 2025, more than four times the 0.8% increase for food-at-home. Overall food prices across both categories rose 1.9%.
Among the five chains tracked in this report, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Ohio were tied for the most closures, with 3 locations each between March and May 2025.
More than 90% of restaurant operators report being affected by rising food, labor, and insurance costs industry-wide. However, no verified evidence directly ties the closures covered in this report — across Dunkin, Panera, Taco Bell, Chipotle, and Chopt — to inflation or pricing; each chain’s documented closures point to separate, chain-specific factors instead.
Adjusted for total US footprint, Chopt had the highest closure rate (~0.95%) of the five chains tracked, despite closing only one location — its small footprint (105 US locations) means a single closure carries a proportionally large impact. Dunkin Donuts, despite closing the most locations in raw numbers (15), had one of the lowest closure rates (0.15%).
Methodology
This report is built on ScrapeHero’s proprietary location data, tracking each of the five chains’ US store footprint — including store-level status, location details, and update timestamps — to identify closures, openings, and total footprint size.
Data source:
- All closure, location, and footprint data in this report was sourced from ScrapeHero’s Datastore, which tracks business location records including store number, name, address (street, city, county, state, zip), geographic coordinates, phone, status, and last-updated date, among other fields.
- The dataset includes locations marked as Open, Opening Soon, or Temporarily Closed.
Time window:
- Closure data in this report reflects 3 months of data.
- Total US location counts (used for closure-rate calculations in this report) reflect ScrapeHero Datastore figures at the time of analysis and may not perfectly align, day-for-day, with the closure window — a natural limitation of comparing a point-in-time footprint count against closures tracked over a multi-month period.
Scope and limitations:
- This report covers five chains only (Dunkin Donuts, Panera Bread, Taco Bell, Chipotle, Chopt) and is not representative of the US restaurant industry as a whole.
- The category breakdown (Snack & Nonalcoholic Beverage, Limited-Service, Full-Service) in this dataset is reported in aggregate and does not specify which closures belong to which of the five chains.
- Industry-wide statistics (restaurant closure trends, food pricing, segment growth) cited throughout this report are drawn from public, third-party sources and are presented as context only — they are not derived from ScrapeHero’s proprietary data and should not be read as directly explaining the closures analyzed here.
