Where should MOD Pizza open new stores?

Pizza never goes out of style and the current favorite, MOD Pizza is the fastest-growing pizza chain. MOD Pizza was founded in Seattle in 2008, beginning with a small footprint of eight stores. The company plans to place itself as the dominant fast-casual brand, aiming to open restaurants in 1,000 new locations in the next five years.

The “million dollar question” every fast-growing chain in retail asks is, where to open new stores so that they can maximize revenue and increase year over year same-store sales.

We used predictive analysis and location analytics to identify locations where MOD pizza could open their next stores based on one metric – the store locations of top pizza chain competitors. In a comprehensive study, multiple metrics would be correlated such as demographics, income levels, and typical customer profiles. ScrapeHero has the capability to perform such complex analysis, but for the purposes of this quick study, we will stick to just one metric.

MOD Pizza Store Metrics Summary

  • MOD Pizza has 431 stores across 28 states and 350 cities
  • Texas is the state with the highest number of stores (63)
  • MOD Pizza has added more than 30 stores since September 2018.

MOD Pizza expansion in the last 10 months

MOD Pizza has 431 stores across 28 states. In comparison to September 2018, when they had 400 stores. During this period, they have expanded largely in Texas, Illinois, and Virginia.

The chart below shows the expansion of MOD Pizza stores from September 2018 to June 2019:

mod-pizza-store-locations

Map of MOD Pizza Locations

Nearly half of MOD Pizza stores are located in Texas, Washington, California, and Illinois. Texas alone comprises 15.5% of all stores, making it the state with the highest number of stores.

According to MOD Pizza’s website, they plan on opening 32 stores of which nine are in Texas. While Idaho, Maryland, and Virginia all have three new MOD Pizza locations coming up.

The map below shows all MOD Pizza locations currently open and opening soon.

mod-pizza-store-location-map

Comparing MOD Pizza with major Pizza Chain Locations

Here is how MOD Pizza locations compared with nine other major pizza chains such as – Dominos, Pizza Hut, California Pizza Kitchen, Marcos, Little Caesars, Papa Johns, Papa Murphys, Cicis, and Sbarro. In the map below it is evident that pizza chains are concentrated in the south-east and the east-coast.

  • Each red point denotes a ten-mile radius where a MOD Pizza store is present
  • Each blue point denotes a ten-mile radius where there is at least one other pizza chain AND no MOD Pizza stores

mod-pizza-competitor-location

If you want the raw data behind this analysis. you can download it from our data store.

Expansion based on Location Intelligence

Our analysis aims to suggest locations where MOD pizza could open stores based on the locations of other major pizza chains – Dominos, Pizza Hut, California Pizza Kitchen, Marcos, Little Caesars, Papa Johns, Papa Murphys, Cicis, and Sbarro.

Condition for a Suggested Location: A suggested location needs at least six of these pizza chains within a ten-mile radius.

Based on this condition, we found 190 locations, of which 52 suggested locations are in states which currently do not have a MOD Pizza store.

mod-pizza-stores-location-intelligence

  • Each red point denotes an upcoming MOD Pizza store
  • Each blue point denotes a suggested location within a ten-mile radius

A ten-mile radius was used for calculating the suggested locations as it was based on the US map scale. You can create your own analysis with distances smaller and larger according to your need. The insights for this article is solely based on the data of other pizza locations and does not include any other geospatial data, demographics data or any other aggregations

Matches based on locations of major pizza chains

To verify the accuracy of our analysis, we calculated the distance between the 190 suggested locations and MOD Pizza’s upcoming stores listed on their website to find a match.

A match occurs when a suggested location falls within a certain radius of an upcoming store.

  • 6 matches were found within a five-mile radius
  • 12 matches were found within a ten-mile radius
  • 16 matches were found within a fifteen-mile radius

The table below shows the matches of the suggested locations with the stores opening soon:

suggested-predictions-mod-pizza-locations

Matches based on locations of 3 Pizza Chains

Most of the pizza chains in the case above have more than a thousand stores. To find more compatible matches we selected pizza chains that have store counts comparable to MOD Pizza – Sbarro (301), Cicis (419), and Marcos (930).

Condition for a Suggested Location: A suggested location needs at least two of these pizza chains within a ten-mile radius.

Based on this condition, we found 93 locations where MOD Pizza could open stores.

We calculated the distance between the suggested locations and each upcoming store to find a match and, found 10 matches within a 25-mile radius of each upcoming store.

The analysis presented does not tell us where MOD Pizza would open stores, but rather helps target a set of locations that it can expand into.

Adopting Location Analytics to Empower Businesses

Mod Pizza has accounted for a large part of sales in fast-casual pizza, growing in higher single digits as opposed to double-digit growth seen within the last few years. There is plenty of growth in the fast-casual industry, and an equal number of competitors at play. With new chains entering the fast-casual field, sharper decisions on how to market their brand and manage financial investments will need to be meticulously calculated.

Data of customer demographics and competitor performance within an area can help you find retail site locations that have the best opportunity to succeed. When implemented successfully, location intelligence serves as an advantage in identifying locations where you would expect higher sales. It can bring about high-value analytics and data-driven insights, giving businesses a sure shot way to figure out where to open stores and distribute products.

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